Provided by the DPRK of the last remaining DAOs. Our dear CROPS lords.
They will be in service to us. Like they have always been, right?
Disclosure first: I’m part of the team behind a cryptocurrency portfolio risk- and scenario-analysis tool (Sentralis). Nobody at Gnosis asked or paid for this, and none of it is advice.
Skipping the composition analysis, as this is familiar to everyone in here, what we’ve done is to run the lion share of the publicly disclosed positions (about ~$137.7M coverage) through five scenario engines, on the thought that with the deposit window closing July 17, both sides of the redeem-vs-hold decision end up holding a slice of the same book. Sharing the following outputs which weren’t obvious to us before running them, in the hope that it helps the discussions.
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A moderate Lido incident (temporary freeze with 80% eventual recovery, plus a 20% stETH depeg during the event) prices out at ~$25.7M, about 19% of the covered book. This is not a prediction but a price tag on a survivable single-protocol event.
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Stressing correlations to a crisis regime moves 1-day VaR by just +2.2%. That non-result is itself informative: the usual crisis mechanism that hits many other portfolios VaR’s (assets that looked independent suddenly moving together) has nothing to grab here.
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Across two deliberately different Monte Carlo models (25,000 paths each, same seed), the simulated 1-in-20 bad year lands anywhere between −41% and −64% of treasury value. That spread is pure model risk, and it’s wide enough to matter for anything sized off a single VaR figure.
Full teardown with methods and limitations goes up in the Treasury category in the next day or two
The necessary footnote: Model estimates under various, reasonable assumptions. They are not to be regarded as facts or predictions.
GIP-151, Redemption NAV
The figures below are calculations based on the latest gno.now update at 00:00:00 UTC, 17 July 2026.
NAV per GNO
| Total treasury (excl. GNO) | $164,701,278 |
| Circulating supply | 1,330,414 GNO |
| NAV per GNO | $123.80 |
GnosisVC portfolio
Valued at a 60% discount to capital called to date, per GIP-151.
| Portfolio valuation | $5,200,000 |
| ÷ circulating supply (1,330,414) | $3.91 per GNO |
Total
| NAV per GNO | $123.80 |
| GnosisVC share | $3.91 |
| Total USD value per GNO | $127.71 |
Asset breakdown
| Asset class | Share |
|---|---|
| ETH | 56.0% |
| Stables | 28.9% |
| Ecosystem | 14.1% |
| Others | 1.0% |
Settlement
Liquid assets are distributed in kind at the snapshot mark. The GnosisVC
share of $3.91 per GNO is settled in stablecoins.
Distribution
We plan open redeems today after the deposits close. We will update here once deposits are live.
Since it ends in around 45 min. Just to warn you here in public again. If you follow through with this, you are probably in violation with MiCA. Substance over Form gets applied. Discriminating users, which you do here, can be interpreted as cartel behaviour. Anyone touching it, may become an Accessory to a Crime. You cannot claim in a court of law you weren’t aware of this risk, because I just told you.
Redemptions are now live at: https://redeem.gno.now/
Please note all tokens were bridged through the canonical Gnosis Omnibridge (only WXDAI via the xDAI bridge).
