Seer
For Seer the plan is not to compete with Polymarket and Kalshi.
Both of those are basic prediction markets (allow people to bet on world events). This is the simplest form of prediction markets (and they needed to be successful for people to take prediction markets seriously).
Now that we got basic prediction markets with Poly and Kalshi, I think the market is ready for more complex ones which provide highly valuable information. Poly and Kalshi actually made our job easier, as it is now easier to convince people to use prediction markets for information as we do not need to convince them that prediction markets work in the first place (as it is now well proven).
The goal of Seer is not to take a small share of Polymarket on “gambling-like” markets, it’s to become the most important source of information for decision making in the world.
This goes from making macro governance decisions (Gnosis just voted on a pilot on this, using futarchy.fi built on top of Seer) to micro decisions on markets mainly traded by AI agents (See the DeepFunding pilot with significant funding from Gitcoin and the Ethereum Foundation).
TL;DR; The goal is not to get a small share of the “gambling-like” market ($300–700 B of revenue) but a large share of the decision making market (~$40–$60T+ of spendings, or 30 to 100x the gambling one).
Seer is built on top of the Gnosis Conditional Token framework. And is basically the continuation of the original Gnosis project (as per its whitepaper). For those new here, Gnosis was originally a prediction market project which ended up pivoting as its side projects ended up with more traction than its PM Omen (now rebranded as Presagio and being traded only by AI agents).
Feedback using Gnosis Chain
Advantages
Bridge to mainnet, low fees and xDAI as a the base token (+ the yield of sDAI) are the two most interesting features.
Drawbacks
Not being a L2 (or in process of becoming a L2) did harm the attractiveness of Gnosis Chain. Indeed, for the deepfunding experiment with a 50k$ grant of the EF, we were asked to do it on a L2 and we deployed on Optimism for this purpose (if Gnosis Chain was a L2, this business would have been on Gnosis).
Those days, having a bridge to Ethereum mainnet is not sufficient to be Ethereum aligned.
It’s weird to see Uniswap as the 4th biggest dapp on Gnosis as it was never properly supported. It was indeed deployed, but Gnosis chain is not supported by the front, so it didn’t seem usable to us.
We are using Swapr which despite a reactive team, doesn’t seem to be updated and had some downtime lead to LPs almost not being able to withdraw in time (we did manage to prevent losses of funds by instructing them on how to remove liquidity by calling the contract directly, but we went pretty close to losses).