Gnosis Chain is Dying – Are We Going to Do Something About It?

[clement]

@N0xyGen

You categorize Polymarket and Kalshi as “gambling-like,” but isn’t it true that their accuracy (e.g., during the US elections) proves they are already serving as massive “truth seeking” engines for decision-makers?

I agree, my characterization is indeed relative. For me “gambling-like” is a spectrum (“The history of financial regulation can thus be roughly summarized as everything being banned as gambling (or usury) until an exception was granted for some newly legitimized higher purpose.” Robin Hanson).

@N0xyGen

What exactly distinguishes your information-seeking markets from what Polymarket or Kalshi offer? If Polymarket decides to natively integrate agent betting - which seems like a trivial technical step for them - why would deep-funding projects or governance structures choose Seer over the platform with the deepest liquidity?

“Agent betting” isn’t an issue, you do not even need to integrate it as agents can access smart contracts and even websites.
Polymarket and Kalshi do not support advanced markets (conditional, scalar), are both permissioned and there isn’t any indication that they would be interested nor have the vision to move into those kind of markets (and I do not think they should, as it would go too far away from their current communication style).

@N0xyGen

Without the “noise” of retail speculators, do you risk these markets being too thin to be reliable?

Currently, liquidity is brought by liquidity subsidies (both in Polymarket and Kalshi), and since no one pay for this information (Polymarket just added a market subsidie feature but it is unclear if anyone paid outside of people who got confused with the UX), those platforms have to pay the whole cost of liquidity.
We get liquidity through a mix of our own token subsidies and information seeker subsidies (people who pay for the information).
Information seeker subsidies can be direct (ex: EF paying 50k$) or indirect (Gnosis putting 100k$ of liquidity which will likely result in a small loss due to impermanent loss).
With AI agents, the information can be brought with a way smaller liquidity.

@N0xyGen

You mention moving into a niche that isn’t yet fully defined. Is the TAM for these “pure” information markets large enough to attract the liquidity necessary for high-signal accuracy?

The TAM of this crazy. Like it is easier to list what is outside of this TAM than what is inside. So what is outside is: Decisions on terminal goal and moral values.
Everything else is fair game (we can play a game of you giving me a topic and I tell you on how to make it better with PMs, but let’s do that on another thread to avoid hijacking this one).

@N0xyGen

L2 Question
As a non-technical observer, I’ve always struggled to understand why projects find it more attractive to launch on a centralized L2 rather than a highly compatible, decentralized chain like Gnosis.

There is some reasonable expectation that on the medium to long term those will decentralized and be more resistant to alternate chains. It’s also a question of community (if you are a L2 you get to be part of the whole Ethereum community, invite to confs, people nice to you because if you were to succeed that is good (even if marginally) for their bags).