Omen 2.0 - should GnosisDAO provide grant to the development of a new frontend?

venky · August 26, 2024, 5:18pm

Introduction

Gnosis built the original prediction market with Omen and was later handed over to DXdao to continue development. Omen was down-prioritized by DXdao and there has been no active development since 2022. Gnosis, along with Gnosis AI and OLAS has been using Omen’s code to deploy their own frontend (aiomen.eth.limo) to test the efficiency of the prediction markets driven by AI agents and also as a way for letting AI agents predict these events.

The past quarter, we have been building a new frontend as a way to make the prediction market better. The vision of this new dapp is to visualize how well these AI agents can create markets for real world events and how well these AI agents are able to predict these markets.

Motivation

The past couple of months, there has been a great amount of traction in prediction market area with Polymarket raising 70M in investment and there has been considerable user growth in polkamarkets, limitless.exchange and manifold.markets. At Dappcon, there has been plenty of talks and discussions around AI, the kind of risks it poses, the challenges it has and how AI and blockchain could become an unstoppable force that needs to be kept a close watch. Gnosis has also been ahead of its time in terms of all the products they launch and this vision aligns well with the Gnosis AI and the investment they have made on AI agents.

During Dappcon, we showcased the new UI we had started building for prediction markets and asked for feedback from Martin. We explored a few possibilities around how we could build a frontend for Omen, where we see the predictions that AI makes and the research that it does when making a prediction. We will also be able to see how each AI agent is performing, comparing them against each other.

Proposal for Omen frontend development

We would commit to developing the features listed in the vision and roadmap and would be actively communicating to the Gnosis community. We would also work closely with Gnosis AI and OLAS teams to be able to explore new improvements in the AI agents that create the markets and predict the outcomes.

GnosisDAO will be managing the liquidity for all markets that are being created. This is the status quo right now as all the markets created by the AI agents are being given a budget to add liquidity. In case, there are markets that are good to have based on current events, Gnosis DAO will be managing and maintaining the liquidity.

Gnosis AI will also look to create these markets against Swapr V3 to get deep liquidity on the markets and the outcome.

As part of the proposal, we would also be looking forward to receiving a grant of 400K in WXDAI and 600 GNO.

We would love to receive control of omen.eth to be able to deploy the frontend on the Omen’s ENS and using Omen’s brand. We would create a new multisig to control this that would be a 3 of 5 signatures, with the 3 signers being Venky, Leo and Diogo from Presagio’s team and 2 from Gnosis.

We also would work towards the Gnosis and Omen team agreeing on a roadmap to continue post MVP.

Roadmap

Vision

To build a dapp that gives insights into how AI agents predict the events, how often they are successful in predicting the events and what research they do to reach there. The vision is to provide a visualization of how well these AI agents are predicting the markets, what difference in prediction score each model presents and how that affects the agents predicting.

MVP version:

Base features:

The dapp should be able to show all the binary markets and the spread for each market. (Completed)
In the markets page, any user should be able to buy the outcome tokens with the wallet connected.(Completed)
Searching and filtering of markets. (Completed)
There should be a way to see the activity history and a graph depicting the fluctuations in the outcome of a market. (Completed)
Show markets that are based on different collateral tokens. (Completed)
Redemption of outcome tokens once the market is resolved. (Completed)
“My bets” page with a list of all the markets that the user has predicted. (Completed)

AI specific features:

Connect with Gnosis AI APIs to show relevant articles related to the market. (Completed)
A filter for all the markets created by the AI agents. (Completed)
Visualize whether a particular transaction is created by one of the AI agents. This is based on the list derived from https://dune.com/hdser/omen-ai-agents (Completed)
Display the resolution status and oracle, based on reality.eth oracle answering process (In Progress)
If the transaction is from an AI agent, link the research article, the AI model used and the confidence rating that had been used by the AI agent to arrive at the decision. This is done by integrating and fetching info from autonolas mechs.(Yet to start. This needs collaboration with Autonolas and their AI mechs)
Display AI agents performance across various markets. We will link the agents performance to take the user to AI agents’ overview (Yet to start)

MVP plus:

We also had a call with Martin and Stefan to create a market for the Presidential election to create a market based on SDAI as collateral. This will offer a unique differentiator for the predictors and the LPs to generate yield on top of their predictions. With SDAI generating almost 8 to 10% , this will be a huge differentiator to other prediction market products.

Future versions:

Expansion from binary market to multi category market. This will also need the support from OLAS and Gnosis AI team to be able to create categorical markets and also to be able to predict outcomes from those markets.
Permissionless market creation. The possibility for anyone to use the new Omen dapp to create a new market (binary and categorical) Anyone can come in, ask a question to the web app and get a bunch of research done by AI through PMA agent and then get a new market created based on the question.
AI agents overview. This should display how each AI agent is performing, what markets they are predicting on, the model they use and how accurate their predictions are. We can also show the Brier score and compare the agents’ performance against the overall agents performance.with a leaderboard that lets us compare why a certain AI agent is performing better compared to others, helping us get insights into the prompts and the model that is being used to research.
Limit orders. Explore the possibilities of placing limit orders to enter or exit at a certain outcome price.
Explore predictions on DAOs by adding predictions to the KPI goals.
Explore the possibility of discussion forums for each market. We can also have a special tag for “AI specialists” and “AI thought leaders” to provide their inputs on any market and why they predicted a specific outcome.
Predicting and betting on markets with any token by enabling integration with Cowswap
Exploring options to convert the ERC1155 conditional tokens to ERC20 bet tokens

Project update:

Presagio is already functional and is used by Gnosis AI team as an alternative to aiomen.eth.limo (a fork of old Omen) and can be accessed here:

https://presagio.pages.dev.

The designs: https://www.figma.com/design/VcGkl9Wyc416IeyeRM8Z5U/Omen-2.0

The codebase: https://github.com/SwaprHQ/presagio

Funding:

As part of the proposal, we would also be looking forward to receive a grant of 400K in WXDAI and 600 GNO (will be used as a validator for 1 year)

The funding will be used for the following:

Development, testing and maintenance of the product - 70%
Marketing - 15%
Infrastructure costs - 3%
Project / Product management - 12%

Transfer omen.eth ENS to a new multisig for frontend deployment and management.
We would also like to work closely with the Gnosis AI team to understand and explore the possibility to make the agents get better at creating markets and predicting them.

The Presagio team comprises Leo, Diogo, Rorry, Nicki, Akash, and Venky. As a cohesive unit, we have collaborated for over a year to deliver notable projects such as Swapr’s CLAMM(https://v3.swapr.eth.limo ) on Gnosis chain and Stackly (https://stackly.app) deployed on Mainnet, Gnosis chain and Arbitrum, all built atop CoWswap infrastructure.

Looking for feedback from the community.

Thanks,
Venky

staworth · August 27, 2024, 7:37am

Thanks for sharing @venky.

This is an ambitious roadmap in an exciting space. We agree that the significant traction in prediction markets this year is a compelling reason to invest more in user-facing services. To the extent that your proposal and frontend can accelerate the development and adoption of Gnosis AI’s solutions, we agree with the decision to ask for a grant.

With that said, there were a few areas where we felt the first-draft proposal could be developed to help showcase the value on offer here. We’ve drafted a few questions to get at these points, which we’d appreciate your thoughts on:

What are the timescales for this grant proposal? More specifically, how long do you think the roadmap would take, and how long do you expect the funding would last? We want to make sure that the amount requested is proportionate to the planned timescales.
Are you able to give an indication of the proportion of the budget that will go to individual contributor funding? Our sense is that much what’s needed to reach your roadmap is labour, and so most of this grant funding may be going to fund pay for the Presagio team. If that’s right, we’d ideally like to sense check these numbers.
We note you’re asking for 600 GNO to used as a validator for 1 year. Can you explain your thinking here? Is this simply a way of storing a tranche of the funding to unlock in 1 year’s time, and in a way that benefits the DAO?
Does Gnosis (Limited, DAO, AI, etc) receive anything from Presagio in exchange for the grant funding? I don’t think there’s anything mentioned in this proposal, besides the implicit collaboration on Gnosis AI’s solutions. Given the critique of DXdao’s handling of the original Omen, it occurs to us that there’s a risk the project may be wound down promptly after the funding (if it doesn’t gain sufficient traction to sustain itself). Alternatively, if the project takes offs (e.g. similar to Polymarket), it seems like all the benefits of this would stay with Presagio. We’d love to see some commitments to share value with the Gnosis DAO for this early support, including: (i) a perpetual and irrevocable licence for Gnosis AI to use Presagio’s code base for the development of its own products (save for building a competing frontend!); (ii) an option for Gnosis AI or Gnosis DAO to take control of the code base if the Presagio team ever sought to wind down their support; and (iii) a commitment to return a small proportion of profits to the Gnosis DAO if Presagio is successful in building a leading prediction market UI.
What’s the position of Gnosis AI on this proposal? The initial text states that the team “would like to work closely” with Gnosis AI, and proposes that Gnosis AI would work on new improvements and create markets. However, it’s not immediately clear that you’ve secured this as a commitment, as opposed to that you’re now asking for that level of involvement? We would love to see comments from the Gnosis AI team to confirm if they support this proposal.

Thanks in advance for any responses

CryptosNF · August 28, 2024, 3:48am

It seems to be a good thing and a good product for market prediction, and could really complement the gnosis chain offering if we manage to attract enough people to use the platform.

So for me, it’s encouraging and promising, and it’s worth finding out more. That’s why I totally agree with @staworth questions.

Regarding all these 1 by 1 questions, and I’ll also focus on yes what is the point of DAO providing you with this cash injection?

What’s in it for us if the product works? The DAO should take the risk of financing the product, but behind that it needs commitments, probable returns on investment?

I look forward to reading your answers.

venky · August 28, 2024, 12:07pm

Hey @staworth Thanks for the feedback. Indeed it is ambitious, but we feel that with the right ecosystem, this is possible. Tried to answer the questions below

The grant proposal outlines several features on the scope of engagement. Initially, we aim to achieve the following by Devcon:

Launch Omen with its core features and market creation capabilities.
Develop support for DevConflict, hosted by Gnosis, providing resources on how to utilize the new Omen platform.
Expand the platform’s functionality from Yes/No markets to include 2-outcome categorical markets.

These objectives will serve as stepping stones toward getting a product market fit and in overall growth of Omen.

At present, we do not have a specific proportion allocated for individual contributor funding. Our team has been working almost fulltime on Presagio since March 2024, and we view the funds as a grant in creating value for Gnosis chain and aligning with Gnosis’ objectives. Based on our current needs, we believe the $400K will suffice to support both the existing team members, new onboards until May-June 2025.
We are optimistic about Omen’s potential to play a significant role in prediction markets going forward and believe it will bring increased activity to Gnosis chain. Additionally, we would like to receive grants in the token that drives Gnosis Chain to participate in governance decisions that shape the network’s future.
I didn’t intend to critique DXdao; instead, I want to express my gratitude for the valuable learnings and opportunities I’ve experienced while working with the contributors at DXdao. My previous statement about Omen was meant to provide context rather than criticize.

Omen is already owned by Gnosis DAO and that would remain the same in the future. I also do not want to commit on what the future holds, but for Omen to be successful with the current roadmap, we think the following is important:

Leverage Gnosis AI and prediction agents for optimal performance.

Liquidity injection from liquidity providers to enhance prediction market rates for users.

Develop an exceptional frontend that fosters a delightful user experience, encouraging predictors to engage with the platform and gain insights into market dynamics through interactions with Gnosis AI services.

Foster communities interested in creating and managing specialized markets, such as those focused on US elections, sports, cryptocurrency, or DAOs.

Omen’s success hinges on the harmonious synergy between the above components. It is crucial that each aspect works together seamlessly and should be equally rewarded for their contributions. However, given the current stage, it seems premature to commit to any specific exchange arrangement.

Presagio codebase is fully open source, except for the APIs we use. We are working closely with Gnosis AI, they have been contributing and helping us during this stage and would be happy to include more contributors that are excited about prediction markets On revenue sharing, there is no revenue for the protocol right now. Presagio also earns no fees for using the frontend and it will remain as such for the near future (12 to 18 months).

If I may chip in here, we are already working with some members of the Gnosis AI team and we are extremely thankful for them to use Presagio and are helping us tremendously in providing feedback. By adding this in the proposal, I just wanted to make sure that the community is aware of this collaboration.

I believe some of the answers your questions as well above.

staworth · September 2, 2024, 3:22pm

Thank you for the very comprehensive response @venky. Based on this additional information, we are supportive of your proposed grant. We are pleased to hear details of your close collaboration with the Gnosis AI team.

The only point that we would still love to see added is some loose intentions on long-term financial commitments with GnosisDAO, if Presagio do successfully monetise the UI in the future. We appreciate that it may be too early for your team to pin down specifics. However, given the very close alignment of your work with Gnosis AI and the details of this grant, we view this pitch as somewhere between a traditional arms-length grant and incubation-style funding. We’d love to see that reflected in the details of Presagio’s own structure and ambitions here.

Thanks again