Just want to illustrate why this proposal is very important:
I think GIP-1 will barely change the price of GNO, but overall is likely to increase it by 2%.
- It will dilute the circulating supply by 0.5-1%
- it might lead to additional GIPs being passed in the first month of GnosisDAO
- If there’s a good proposal in this month, it could add 5% to the price of GNO
- I think such a proposal would probably be passed sooner or later anyway.
- If there’s a good proposal in this month, it could add 5% to the price of GNO
- if several GIPs fail due to lack of quorum, there may be additional consequences
- governance structure reform
- distributing additional GNO to active voters
- buying GNO from passive holders
- overall, this possibility seems negative for the GNO price, but low confidence
Suppose I want to bet on this: If I think GNO price doesn’t change under GIP-1 I can make 1 DAI profit (!!!) by trading away the current price difference (which currently implies a 13% lower GNO price if GIP-1 is accepted). If I think it raises GNO by 10% (which is more than I actually think), I can make 50 DAI profit. I’m not even sure if this latter figure is profitable after I convert currency to place the bet and pay gas.
So there’s currently a big liquidity problem.
Providing liquidity for the YDAI/YGNO and NDAI/NGNO markets will mean much less “impermanent loss” and so much more liquidity can be provided for the same overall loss. This can make it much more worthwhile to trade on the conditional outcomes.