New Market Suggestions

I’m planning on opening ~3 new markets for propositions which will end before May 16, 2016.

Possible markets that I am considering are “result of Pennsylvania Democratic primary” (ends April 26, most contentious of upcoming primary) and “Bitcoin price on 4/20/16” (Wedge convergence on 4/15 is leading to a large amount of speculation on where the price will go from there).

Does anyone have any other suggestions or comments on the markets suggested above?

The delegate delta (difference) between sanders and clinton. Maybe ending May 24th. I believe its a -204 on sanders right now but an interesting bet would be where that ends on May 24th. That would only exclude the last of the Jun 7th states, and the market could be set up in a variety of ways. It could either be a bracket of ranges or it could just be linear like you did with the starwars opening weekend market. It would be interesting because a variety of paths could lead to an end result and it would require multiple events, but is easily verifiable at the end (just make sure to say certified results and wait to resolve until the dnc certifies so no one gets rustled if something is close).

Great, suggestion. Thanks!

Yes, it involves more complexity yet is still easily resolvable. I’ve just opened a market for this. It ends on May 11 instead of 24th due to some time restrictions on our end. Also I have clarified that superdelegates are excluded from the calculation.

http://groupgnosis.com/dapp/#/markets/0x794d8fd69bbe4b77792238fc27e22c9a/0x1c4ee132a481333737c96a5dbbb5d707e324c26ae

Here’s the description

"What will the difference in delegates be between Hillary Clinton and
Bernie Sanders on May 11, 2016?

This is calculated by (Clinton delegates) - (Sanders delegates) and
excludes superdelegates. The difference at the start of this market is
251 delegates. From the start of market to resolution there will be
primaries in NY, CT, DE, MD, PA, RI, IN, Guam, and WV for a total of 894
delegates.
"

1 Like

I’ve added another new market for Bitcoin price on 5/15.

http://groupgnosis.com/dapp/#/markets/0x2cfdf27e2382323792c50f275c4160ae/0x1c4ee1329fbc3961b045a8c9bd50046a966ab5ac2

What will the price of Bitcoin be in USD on May 15th, 2016? Price will
be taken from the Coindesk Bitcoin Price Index found at
http://www.coindesk.com/price/ and will be calculated as ((Day High) +
(Day Low) / 2) on May 15th at 5PM PST.

Will SP500 index touch 2300 before March 15 2016?
Will Eth touch $12 before March 15 2016?
Will EUR/USD touch $ 1.14 before March 15 2016?
Yes/No

These are the best type of markets to trade on imo.
Brokers will generally charge a spread anywhere between 5% - 40% to trade on basic options like these.
Hedging is possible as well.

Thanks for the input! Starting May 17th we will open more markets like this.

Looks like this is going to be a close one i think its at 292 right now.

Is this the correct math as of today 1,706 vs 1414?

https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=+dem+delegate+count&eob=m.09c7w0/D/5/short/m.09c7w0/

Just waiting on the West Virginia at this point?

Or did i do the math wrong

if the market started at 251 and then there were to be just the 8 states

NY 139 to 108
CT 28 to 27
DE 12 to 9
MD 61 to 33
PA 105 to 83
RI 11 to 13
IN 39 to 44
Guam: TBD
WV: TBD

so start of market is 251 and clinton went + 395 and sanders went 317

so thats technically (minus guam and WV) clinton at a +329 based on the rules of the market which stated that there were only to be a total of 894 delegates that could modify the total during the market.

I think the difference is the ~31 delegates that were awarded from Washington which appear in the standard cnn/fox/msm delegate counts and those do those count in this market.

Could the oracle confirm this is how the math is supposed to work?

-Thanks :wink:

So the resolution of this bet will be simple: on May 11 we will check the (AP) reported delegate counts and do Hillary - Sanders. At the moment of writing this it is: 1705 - 1415 = 290.

On May 11. most likely results of West V. will be included. There might be other states (I have not checked) where not yet all delegates are reported. If they would be reported by May 11 we would add them as well.

This sentence “rom the start of market to resolution there will be primaries in NY, CT, DE, MD, PA, RI, IN, Guam, and WV for a total of 894 delegates.” was only for giving context - we will resolve the market according to this: “What will the difference in delegates be between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders on May 11, 2016? This is calculated by (Clinton delegates) - (Sanders delegates) and excludes superdelegates”