Worker proposal - seeking feedback

I want to help build the GnosisDAO futarchy into a system that makes excellent decisions. I’m currently working on a PhD with about 12 months to go, as well as a part time as a consulting data scientist. I am proposing to suspend my study for a three month “paid internship” with GnosisDAO to work on the GnosisDAO futarchy. I could keep working part time with GnosisDAO after April 2021, which is when my current consulting contract finishes in April and I don’t plan to seek additional consulting work after that.

I’m not sure how I should expect GnosisDAO to respond to an employment proposal. I figured I would make one and see what happens. I want to get some feedback on it because I want to know if it is a good idea to defer my study.

Time and compensation

I can work 37.5% time in December (20 hours/week, 1 week break) and 50% in Jan and Feb. For December, I am counting hours I have already spent on GnosisDAO related tasks.

Use the DXdao worker guidelines as a reference (https://docs.google.com/document/d/1pdSALwjVozSGfCliuzjL8kKyC9h6mIqfEL6Mp8AT0Zk/edit), I think I fit between levels 2 and 3 (level 2 "I have some work experience, but I have not yet developed specialized skills. Perhaps I have worked in a related industry, but I might lack direct experience in Web3/DeFi/DAOs. ", level 3 “I’ve been around the block and know how to work independently, but I still need help coming up with a scope of work and working with people outside of my area of focus.”). DXD compensation is split between ETH and DXD, 50% of which is vested over 1 year and 50% vested over 2 years. They also pay 75% for the first month, 90% for the second and 100% for the third.

At level 2.5, accounting for part-timeness and early month discounts, this works out to:

  • US $1856.25 in ETH, US $1181.25 in GNO (vested) in December
  • US $2227.5 in ETH, US $1417.5 in GNO (vested) in Jan
  • US $2475 in ETH, US $ 1575 in GNO (vested) in Feb

I am happy to be paid for a month’s work at the end of the month, but I would like some indication that this is likely to happen before I commit to it.

Proposed Responsibilities

GnosisDAO is brand new, so what I end up doing is likely to evolve. I want to focus on the futarchy/decision making aspect of the organisation.

I propose to begin with I refine and cheerlead a number of proposals under discussion and, if accepted, coordinate their implementation. My view is that our current system of GNO impact can be improved substantially.

  1. Partnership with Metaculus. Graeme and I are in discussions regarding how to GnosisDAO might partner with Metaculus. Metaculus has an enthusiastic community, and their aggregated forecasts have a solid track record of calibration and accuracy. I think GnosisDAO can benefit from engaging with their community, and from augmenting our own forecast technology with theirs.

  2. @mkoeppelmann’s improvement to the way GnosisDAO funds markets is a critical upgrade to our futarchy that will facilitate a massive increase in the incentive for accurate GNO impact pricing for the same cost to the DAO. I am not the author of this proposal, but if it needs refining and cheerleading I would be happy to take it on as I think it is important to implement quickly.

  3. Secondary markets may further improve the performance of GnosisDAO futarchy. This idea needs additional theoretical development to work out when secondary markets are likely to be helpful in realistic scenarios.

Another valuable area of work in the medium term is evaluating the performance of the GnosisDAO futarchy. If the futarchy is performing well, showing this will help build trust in it. On the other hand, if it is performing poorly then there is a need for additional development.

My background

I have a Bachelor’s degree in physics, I am about 70% through a PhD in machine learning, I have 3 years experience as a data scientist in the education and solid waste management sectors and I was a high school teacher for 3 years. I was also involved in the team that produced http://epidemicforecasting.org/ earlier this year, where I was researching the impact of different mitigation measures described in this preprent.

My coding experience is about 95% Python, 4% Javascript and 1% other stuff. I have a very solid grasp of mathematical probability theory and causal reasoning, which is the subject of my PhD. I also have experience in applied machine learning work, particularly in Bayesian statistical inference.

I’ve been in the crypto space since August this year when I decided to investigate the state of prediction markets. I’ve made a small profit trading on Omen and Polymarket, and I’ve read a couple of smart contracts.

I think many organisations often make mediocre decisions, and those that do often “got lucky” by having the right people in the right place at the right time. I am excited to work on futarchy as I think it has the potential to be a robust, replicable technology for making good decisions.

5 Likes

Hey @davidoj
In principal I am in favour of proposals like this and I appreciate the various ideas you brought in already. However - I feel like GnosisDAO would first need to evolve in its structure to reasonably make such a decision. Currently the effort of making a decision is quite high: 150k GNO ~$9,000,000 are expected to vote for yes. In addition the prediction markets for Gnosis Impact are funded in a way that the funding will be mostly lost. For GIP1 that caused costs of ~$10,000 ($5k funding for each market)

Long story short: in its current structure GnosisDAO is only equipped to make larger decision (I would say at minimum $50k)

How I could see the structure evolve that GnosisDAO created sub-DAOs (could use DAOStack, Aragon, Colony or even a similar structure as GnosisDAO) that have their own subgoals and budgets.

There could e.g. be a sub-DAO with the Goal to promote/improve the use of “Gnosis Impact” (decision markets). The goal of that sub-DAO would ideally be quantifiable (e.g. x> trading volume on decision markets; at least 5 teams using it; …)
Potentially “yes-outcome-token-holders” of that goal could be the voters for this sub DAO.

Now the GnosisDAO could allocate a budget to such a sub-DAO and this sub-DAO should be well equipped to decide on a proposal like yours.

4 Likes

Hi @davidoj,

Something which could action in the mean time is smaller grants.

Due to the grant size they can be approved quickly, but do have a narrower scope.

Thinking off the top of my head, I think your work experience in data science could very valuable via:

  • Building forecasting algorithms i.e improving Price Impact
  • Meta Forecasts, tools to combine forecasts across different platforms
  • Forecasts retrospective, detailing forecasts accuracy (brier scores or some other method) as well as reviewing the return of LPs on Omen.

Otherwise, there is a small GECO project currently going building out an Aragon Futarchy Dapp. Once this out it could be building block to create the sub DAO’s Martin mentioned. If you are interested I know the developer would love assistance. https://github.com/luzzif/aragon-futarchy

Let me know, with GECO and the smaller grants I’m confident there is a way we can support you until GnosisDAO is ready to grant larger funds via sub DAOs.

2 Likes

I just realized that I missed this thread. But just wanted to bump it and say that I agree with Graeme’s approach here.